NSW and QLD wholesale energy prices hit two-year lows

What it means for businesses right now

Before diving in, it helps to clarify who this matters most for.

Small businesses, typically those consuming under 100,000 kWh of electricity per year or spending less than around $3,000 per month, are usually on standard retail energy plans with more stable pricing and limited exposure to wholesale market movements. For these businesses, energy costs tend to change gradually rather than with day-to-day market shifts.

Commercial and industrial businesses, generally those consuming more than 100,000 kWh per year or spending over $3,000 per month on electricity, usually procure energy through fixed-term contracts that are directly linked to wholesale prices. That means when the market moves, it directly affects the rates they can lock in for future years.

This is why the current pricing environment is particularly relevant for commercial and industrial businesses. With NSW and QLD wholesale prices at their lowest levels in more than two years, businesses approaching their next contract decision have a rare opportunity to secure lower forward rates before conditions change again.

What the market is showing

Recent ASX Energy Futures data shows a clear downward move across both states.

Queensland futures have eased sharply, with calendar year contracts falling to levels last seen more than two years ago.

New South Wales has followed a similar path, with prices declining steadily through late 2025 into January 2026.

_{Market disclaimer: Wholesale electricity prices are subject to change and can move quickly in response to weather, outages, fuel availability, and regulatory developments. Current pricing levels do not guarantee future outcomes.}

(QLD, 27^th of January 2026)

(NSW, 27^th of January 2026)

Why prices are lower right now

A few key factors are converging at the same time.

First, seasonal conditions are working in favour of lower prices. January and early February can be a period where market conditions are softer. Solar generation is at its strongest, demand is more predictable, and short-term risk premiums tend to ease.

Second, renewable output across the grid remains high, reducing reliance on higher-cost generation during daylight hours. This has helped suppress spot prices and, in turn, pulled futures lower.

Third, the market is experiencing a temporary easing in perceived near-term risk. This does not remove longer-term structural challenges, but it does reduce the premium being priced into contracts right now.

A reminder on volatility

It is important to be clear about one thing. This market can move quickly.

Prices at these levels are not guaranteed to last. Wholesale energy markets are highly sensitive to changes in weather, outages, fuel availability, and policy signals. A shift in any one of these can change pricing in a matter of weeks, or even days.

What makes the current moment notable is not just that prices are down, but that they are down at a time of year that generally offers good opportunities for reviewing contract positions.

Why this matters for businesses

This matters most for commercial and industrial businesses, typically those spending more than $3,000 per month on electricity or consuming over 100,000 kWh per year.

For businesses in NSW and QLD that meet this criteria, the current pricing environment creates optionality.

• Businesses with contracts expiring in 2026 or 2027 may be able to reduce future exposure by acting early.

• Businesses rolling month to month or sitting on short-term extensions may be carrying unnecessary risk.

• Businesses that delayed decisions during higher-priced periods now have more room to move.

This is not about picking the absolute bottom of the market. It is about recognising when pricing has shifted materially in your favour and making a decision that aligns with your risk appetite and operational needs.

How Zembl helps

Zembl helps businesses understand what is actually happening in the market and what it means for their specific situation.

Rather than reacting to headlines or sales pressure, we look at:

• Your current contract position and expiry dates

• How NSW or QLD market movements translate to your actual bill

• The trade-offs between short-term savings and longer-term risk

• Whether current pricing makes sense to act on, or whether waiting is the smarter move

Periods like this can create meaningful opportunities. Having clear, grounded advice helps businesses assess whether it makes sense to act.

If you want to understand whether this two-year low pricing environment is relevant for your business, a conversation with a Zembl Energy Expert is a good place to start.